Tuesday, May 03, 2016

Daya : Not a force to reckon

Daya : trading at 7.5cents and 8cents at the moment. I will not take such trades as we might get stuck into it for looong time as it drifting lower. Reduce risk ... and not to punt into it. If one is in position at higher level, only two possibilities ... cut-loss and move on OR ...hold till they goring-it up again. The 3rd choice of averaging down is strongly discouraged.

This is merely my opinion. Trade at own risk.

Note : This is just to answer an e-mail asking me about Daya.


Stock Watch : APPLE

AAPL : Trading at strong support of USD92-93 level. I bought last night at this level and hold for recovery. cut-loss if below USD91.50

This is daily chart but not updated yet as Apple closed at 93.65 this morning. Will be selling around USD97-98 level.

I am slowly moving to trade US-stocks as it is more volatile and less manipulations. Also, I could SHORT (sell first, buy later if we think it is going to retrace) ... I could put stop-loss and profit-taking ... making trading automated!! That is what we all traders should do ... rather than watching the prices of stocks. Normally, in day-time ... I m also very busy with classes.

Do homework in the noon ... prepare the trading plans and trade at nights!!

Note : I will be creating a stock-watch group for the US stocks! Join me?


Definition : Bear Market


Learning Corner

What is a 'Bear Market'

A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.

Note : Base on the definition given above, we are NOT in bear-market for KLCI. Crude-oil is.

So ... the correction is a good opportunity to BUY.

I was sharing that last Friday night (public) and tonight e-meeting(weekly for members).

There are differences for pull-back, correction and crash. As we are not in bear-market(yet), any pullback or correction will be good time to buy and wait for rebound.

So 。。。it is BUY in MAY and go away, for me.



Sunday, May 01, 2016

Availability Heuristic


Kahneman and Tversky speculated that the availability heuristic is used in important areas, as when “the fortuitous availability of incidents” (such as a recent airplane crash) ends up distorting people’s judgments. If people are preoccupied about an outcome, and so talk about it a lot, its availability in their minds will increase – which means that people will see it as far more likely than it actually is. This was an early suggestion that people can fall prey to “availability cascades,” which arise when a report of an apparent or potential event spread rapidly from one person to another, leading people to believe something that is not true.

What explains that persistent mistake? Goetzmann and his co-authors hypothesise that because of availability bias, investors give too much weight to recent information in assessing crash probabilities. They speculated that whenever the media reports on bad news about the stock market, investors will overreact.

This a good read on "Financial Behavioural" .. why we read media and over-react and lose money.

It has always been that ... we read some good news, we try to related it to our stocks ... or we read a bad news, we tends to be in fear ...

Read the above article ...

Have a nice Labour Day off.


Saturday, April 30, 2016

Saturday's thoughts : Teaching Trading

It is Sat and it is raining at Subang Jaya here. Slowing myself for a while ... after a hectic long week. Yes ... exams is nearing and many of my students are going through last minute and I am having many extra hours with them.

Many of them have been with me for a year or months, at least. And I will be 'missing' them ... especially few who gave me such satisfaction of teaching them. The joy of teaching ...

That same goes to teaching trading. But ... as we are teaching adults, they are not students to you ... but rather 'friends'. Many are being friends to me ... many left too but still in touch(most of them). So ... seeing many appreciating us ... drive us to teach .. and improve our teaching.

Teaching is never an easy task ... it is beyond the classroom teaching! For my A-level Math students, I will be seeing them in weekly basis(normally 1.5 or 2 hours) ... for a year period of time or at least 6 months. Weekly ... as the subject (Further Math is never easy, either) requires constant coaching ... and we have to cover 10-12 topics for each paper!!

As the exams is nearing ... now we are at final preparation stage. Revision ... notes-taking and doing questions. I even created an watsapp group for my students to ask questions!! Students nowadays are more tech-savvy ... and I m still in the IT-dinosaur era. Haha ...

Anyway ... it is different from teaching trading as I only see them for one-day 'workshop' to cramp all the trading components and ... some of them are totally newbies, it is a great challenge to teach trading well!!

To start with, trading is dynamic ... unlike Newton's second law F = ma. To teach the application of MA(moving average) itself, it could takes hours ... then back-testing that will take months!! This is something many retailers (you and me) do not understand ... and how dynamic market could be ... and as the volatilities in markets increases, it is definite needing more attention if we are trading at current market situation. We certainly need to be more actively checking on our portfolio ... and managing it.

How to teach the whole trading-plan or indicators in one-day workshop?? It is near impossible and that explained why many paid few thousands ... attending workshops, the so-called professional ones ... few days workshop ... to learn about all those indicators, moving averages, support-resistance and more .... yet, UN-successfully to apply in REAL market trading.

Simply put ... it is not everyone's cuppa ... to learn those complexity of those indicators or planning on trading. Ask most of traders ... you will hear that most of them do not have a trading plan. It is too tedious ... even after we attended the course. Ever wonder why?

Personally, I have attended 5 trading workshops so far ... specifically, to learn different ways of trading. It is the methods ... and set-up we are learning but it may not suit us. From the whole group attended workshops, I knew that 80% of them do not understand 80% of the contents. And from the small 20% who might understood 80% of the contents .... only 20% of them will be applying and trading well.

That small percentage ... is the place where I wish to be ... the elite 20% winners in market!! So, I m giving myself 10 years to achieve that ... failing means, I have to admit defeat and quit?

Never QUIT .. my motto. Winners never quit ... quitters never win.

I am on my 8th year in trading ... bruised ... burnt ... many of times. I have no shame ... to admit losses and expose my wounds. That is the only REAL way of learning ... and the pain will remind us not to be too stupid. Buat-bodoh is not the way improving, either.

I m in my 4th year of teaching trading ... last weekend, I had my cohort-20. Wow!! But .. certainly it is still not easy. Let me check on the stock I gave them as home-work.

Padini : So ... I have to teach them how to write a trading-plan for Padini and guide them to see it breakout.

In order to be in touch with them (3 of them in my stock-watch group too), I created a watsapp group for them ... so that they could ask questions! And on Monday nights, they will attend the e-meeting too!! That is the best way to ... LEARN!

Just attended a one-day workshop will not help much ... we need time to digest. We need to comprehend. Then .. we need to learn to apply. It is testing resistance again ... but the low-volume ...zzzz ... we have to wait for strong volume breakout of resistance. Then, execute our trading plan ...

I still feel there are many things I need to learn, especially .. catching knives (wounded many times! ouch!!) as when market crashing down .... one day. We need the experiences ...

GTronic ... this excite me so much ... but it failed me. I have to cut-loss due to failed rebound. But it still excite me ... so, I moved back in ... only to be caught again ... and cut-loss again. Sigh ... where is the bottom as I m still excited?

Nice to sit here ... relax and write about my thoughts on teaching. I m still very much a teacher in me. Always will be ... and yeah, I m still very much a blogger ... hehe.

Have a nice long weekend.


Friday, April 29, 2016

Oversold stocks : BAT and such

BAT : http://www.tratles.net/2016/04/29/stock-watch-bat/

I didn't watch the movie ... as I seldom watch movie. Also ... I seldom watch BAT 。。。but yesterday a LONG black candle excite me. Go to the above link(to activate my dormant site. haha)

Oversold : RSI below 30

1. BAT : RSI at 22.2

2. Axiata : RSI at 29.1

3. Digi : RSI at 18.3

4. Maxis : RSI at 22.0

5. SKPetrol : RSI at 28.8

KLCI's RSI at 33 ... still above 30 as of yesterday. Today, dropping 10points (DOW down 200plus points) ... RSI should be slightly below 30?

Will like to have an e-meeting (I m only noisy during market selldown. haha) ... planning tonight 10.30pm? Will like to check on my index-linked again ...

go to : https://www.facebook.com/tratles/ for the update on the link.

Time to get excited and BUY.


Thursday, April 28, 2016

13 habits of the self-made millionaire

13 habits of self-made millionaire, from a man who spent 5 years studying rich people

by Kathleen Elkins

Mac 18, 2016

All self-made millionaires had to start somewhere.

TEH : I have started ... failed many times, de-railed, swayed ... mistakes ... and moving on again. Start somewhere ... yes. Just start. If you have good idea to share with me or sharing opinions with me ... I will be glad to meet for coffee/dinner-date. Concrete idea ... stimulating conversation excites me!! Let's start ... somewhere ... and I am opening myself to be 'dated'.
Much of their transformation from ordinary to seven-figure status can attributed to “rich habits,” a term coined by Thomas C. Corley, who spent five years researching the daily habits of 177 self-made millionaires.

TEH : Time to read these 13 rich-habits and re-channel my focus into them.

“From my research, I discovered that daily habits dictate how successful or unsuccessful you will be in life,” he writes in his upcoming book “Change Your Habits, Change Your Life.” “There is a cause and effect associated with habits. Habits are the cause of wealth, poverty, happiness, sadness, stress, good relationships, bad relationships, good health, or bad health.”
 TEH : Time to acquire the habits ... and change my bad-habits!!

The good news is all habits can be changed, Corley notes. Here are a few “rich habits” of self-made millionaires that you can start developing today:
1. They read consistently
2. They exercise
3. They hang out with other successful people
4. They pursue their own goals
5. They get up early
6. They have multiple sources of income
7. They find and check in with mentors
8. They’re positive
9. They don’t follow the herd
10. They have good etiquette

11. They help others succeed

12. They dedicate 15 to 30 minutes a day to just thinking
13. They seek feedback

Print it out ... and stick on the wall.


Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Updating HK-links

Hong Kong (HSI)







It has been a long while since I updated my links ... on the side on my blog. I am checking the links, making sure it is still valid. Yes ... all the above links still valid and running. One may get loads of information about stocks trading in HKSE and more.

I like the bochk (Bank of China, HK) site the most as I do still use it to check fundamentals of those companies trading in HKSE.

go to http://cpteh.blogspot.my/

On the right hand side of my blog, there are LINKS. The above links used to be my frequent checks on my HKSE's trades .. but last year, I got burnt when market in China crashing down. ouch.

When market crash again ... I will move back to HKSE as that is where the value is ... many blue-chips are trading at single digit PER ... and they are huge companies. WAIT for the market to crash!!

I will be updating more on the links ... adding new ones and also work on my out-dated widgets.

Bear with me ... as I m renovating my 'home'.


Others pain, our gain?

Morning ... waking up after seeing KLCI dived 20points yesterday ... thanks to bad-news from 1MDB.

KLCI chart showing divergence with 1725 resistance level in tact. From Jan-Feb ... it rebounded to hit this resistance level a few times ... but failed breakout.

KLCI finally given up the 1700 psycho-support. So ... it is more down-side at the moment and best to stay sideway and wait patiently. Those bought some stocks days away might need to force to cut-loss.

But ... how about Gtronic? The talk in town at the moment with Apple registering not-so-good earning?

GTronic ... making headlines ... and more bad-earning reports out to press the 'darling' of semi-con ... down!! This will be one of the best waterfall (Victoria) seen for months ... the last one I traded was Maxis. Two looong black candles. Will watch for third one today ... three-black-crows ... real black!! But if it is a reversal candle, I will buy.


I still feel sorry for many retailers who might stuck at higher level. I do not take pleasure on others pain ... and when I see some of them in the telegram/watsapp group active-members 'laughing' haha ... on the stocks many painfully swallowing ... I feel that is very in-humane. I will definitely do not want to be linked to them ... these are bad human...

Personally, I have many times caught in such painful situation ... and as I m more experienced now, and with knowledge of seeing charts ... I have learnt to cut-loss. We should help others ... not on the consoling part ... but to share with them strategies or analysis. We could only advise them ... but it is up to them to make the final decision.

Many have e-mail to me ... talking about their bad experiences or their pain ... I could understand and I m a caring person. I feel the pain too ... reminding myself those experiences ... and everyone of those in markets need to learn.

UMWOG/AAX/Armada/FGV and many more: I do know someone who is still holding at IPO level.

Please do not be cynical to laugh at other people's pain. I do hope we are more empathic ... compassionate ... and caring. The world is not about you winning ... or if others losing, you feel good?

I never laugh at other people's pain. Not in stock-market ... not in real life. Not even when MU lost. It's kinda 'sick' to rub salt to others pain ... and curse them "you deserve it".

I will rather be the person to console ... to help ... to listen.

empathy : the feeling that you understand and share another person's experiences and emotions : the ability to share someone else's feelings

Those wish to have a listening ear to your pain, I could be that person but I will not advise on any of your stocks/portfolio.

I have an e-mail from a person(from Penang) ... he was holding to 10stocks or more, many in paper-loss and many speculative counters!! He came to my short workshop held in Penang in 2014-Sept/Oct ... and now doing very well after joining my stock-watch group ... and trying to follow me in trading FCPO today!!

Seriously ... I feel great ... as he is no longer punt here-there ... as he was totally new in trading, came in during the hype-of-penny-stocks time. Trade ... cut-loss ... take-profit ... based on FA + TA.

You see ... we all do mistakes! We all were newbies ... novices and ignorants too. We bought stocks due to hear-say, sms/watsapp ... reading forums, blogs, media-paper such as Edge, Focus, Star etc etc ... or base on TP given by investment banks!! Our friendly dealers/remisiers ... will recommend us some stocks to buy or apply the IPO.

We have to take responsible on our own trades. NEVER blame on others our losses.

Then ... we move on , learn from mistakes ... and perhaps, becoming wiser.

Hope my message is clear ... it is very BAD of any of us to laugh at others pain. One day ... we will face adversity or in pain too ... one day.


Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Waterfall : GTronic

This is after the sell-down yesterday. Long black ... closed 17% down. Crazy-ness ... due to some bad-news, sell sell sell .... as the moment, it hit RM3.95 ... rebounding to RM4.10 ... and very active.

I am catching a knife around RM4 now, cut-loss if below RM4 later closing.

Good luck ... trade at own risk. Those caught at RM5 or higher level, I feel sorry.